Oil Increases on Outlook for U.S. Shale and Data on Oil Rigs
Oil increased in price on Monday after the world’s consumer oil body said it expected production of U.S. shale to fall during 2016 and 2017, potentially easing the glut that had pushed the prices to lows of more than 10 years.
A bounce in stock markets around the world and an after effect of the drop in oil rig counts in the U.S. last week also helped support prices.
Brent crude futures the international benchmark were up by $1.05 equal to 3.2% per barrel while futures for U.S. crude were up $1.01 or 3.4% to break the $30 per barrel threshold.
The International Energy Agency or IEA said the outlook for the medium term was that the production of shale oil in the U.S. was expected to drop by as many as 600,0000 barrels daily in 2016 and another 200,000 daily in 2017.
That fed into other data released late during last week showing that drilling rig numbers of for the U.S. had dropped to their lowest total since December of 2009.
Global financial markets bounced Monday, extending the gains from last week and bringing more of an upbeat tone to the commodity markets.
Despite the gains on Monday, analysts said the conditions in the market remained weak especially as there was a slowing of demand.
One analyst from Morgan Stanley said that the sharp deceleration of the demand growth over the past few months, especially for gasoline, was a key feature of the bearish view and the expectations for a longer period for rebalancing.
The demand in China is particularly challenging, as there have been a number of negative trends lately, she added.
The IEA said the global oil markets would start to rebalance during 2017.
The conditions of the oil market today do not give any suggestion that the prices of oil would recover sharply in the short term future.
In the U.S., record stocks of crude of more than 504.1 million barrels were weighing on the markets, countering a proposed freeze in production at levels for January between Russia and OPEC.